"Our research led on to other things, such as the fact that exchange rates are not lognormally distributed."

Fact, Research

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"Our research led on to other things, such as the fact that exchange rates are not lognormally distributed."

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Explore more quotes by John Hull

"If each of your time steps is one week long, you are not modeling the stock price terribly well over a one-week time period, because you are saying that there are only two possible outcomes."

Time

"I think VAR is a very healthy development within the industry."

Development

"Our starting point then was trying to find a way to incorporate mean reversion into the HoLee model."

Trying

"The HoLee model was the first term structure model. I remember reading their paper soon after it was published and as it was fairly different from many of the other papers that I had read, I had to read it quite a few times. I realized that it was a really important paper."

First

"In the interest rate area, traders have for a long time used a version of what is known as Black's model for European bond options; another version of the same model for caps and floors; and yet another version of the same model for European swap options."

Time

"We concluded that you cannot rely on delta hedging alone. It sounds simplistic to say that now, but back then, this was the sort of thing people were only just beginning to realize."

People

"Alan White and I spent the next two or three years working together on this. We developed what is known a stochastic volatility model. This is a model where the volatility as well as the underlying asset price moves around in an unpredictable way."

Years

"Our tree is actually a tree of the short-term interest rate. The average direction in which the short-term interest rate moves depends on the level of the rate. When the rate is very high, that direction is downward; when the rate is very low, it is upward."

Direction

"One important measurement issue concerns the fat tails problem that I mentioned earlier. VAR is concerned with extreme outcomes. If the tails of the probability distributions we are using are too thin, our VAR measures are likely to be too low."

Extreme

"When interest rates are high you want the average direction in which interest rates are moving to be downward; when interest rates are low you want the average direction to be upward."

Direction