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"Alan White and I spent the next two or three years working together on this. We developed what is known a stochastic volatility model. This is a model where the volatility as well as the underlying asset price moves around in an unpredictable way."
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Explore more quotes by John Hull
"The problem with interest rates are that you are not modeling a single number, you are modeling a whole term structure, so it is a sort of different type of problem."
"One important measurement issue concerns the fat tails problem that I mentioned earlier. VAR is concerned with extreme outcomes. If the tails of the probability distributions we are using are too thin, our VAR measures are likely to be too low."
"The real challenge was to model all the interest rates simultaneously, so you could value something that depended not only on the three-month interest rate, but on other interest rates as well."
"Our starting point then was trying to find a way to incorporate mean reversion into the HoLee model."
"We started giving presentations at practitioner conferences in 1986, and since then all of our derivatives research has been stimulated by contact with practitioners."
"Yes, our tree has an interesting shape. The center branches reflect the shape of the zero curve. When extreme parts of the tree are reached the branching pattern changes to accommodate the mean reversion."
"When interest rates are high you want the average direction in which interest rates are moving to be downward; when interest rates are low you want the average direction to be upward."
"If each of your time steps is one week long, you are not modeling the stock price terribly well over a one-week time period, because you are saying that there are only two possible outcomes."
"The HoLee model was the first term structure model. I remember reading their paper soon after it was published and as it was fairly different from many of the other papers that I had read, I had to read it quite a few times. I realized that it was a really important paper."
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